Why Most of Us Fail to Grasp Coming Exponential Gains in AI

By now, most of us are familiar with Moore’s Law, the famous maxim that the development of computing power follows an exponential curve, doubling in price-performance (that is, speed per unit cost) every 18 months or so. When it comes to applying Moore’s Law to their own business strategies, however, even visionary thinkers frequently suffer from a giant “AI blind spot.”

I give a lot of talks to successful, strategically-minded business people who can see around corners in their own industries, yet they struggle to grasp what exponential improvement really means. And a lot is riding on this exponential curve, but one technology that is particularly benefiting from it is artificial intelligence.

One reason people do not grasp how rapidly artificial intelligence is developing is so simple it’s almost laughable: Exponential curves don’t fare well when we humans try to capture them on paper. For very practical reasons, it’s virtually impossible to fully depict the steep trajectory of an exponential curve in a small space such as a chart or a slide. Visually depicting the early stages of an exponential curve is easy. However, as the steeper part of the curve kicks in and numbers rapidly get larger, things get more challenging.