Falling Chinese rocket expected to enter Earth’s atmosphere in <2 days
The Chinese rocket that will fall back to Earth in a few days is equivalent in size to two semi-truck trailers, and as much as 40 percent of this metal will reach the Earth's surface, experts say. Although the overall risk of harm to people is low—there is only a 0.5 percent chance of injury or death to a human, based on one model—these risks are nonetheless higher than accepted by most spacefaring nations, said Ted Muelhaupt, a reentry and debris expert at The Aerospace Corporation.
Muelhaupt and other analysts spoke with reporters during a teleconference Wednesday, about two days before the predicted reentry of the Long March 5B core stage. As it acquires more orbital data, the nonprofit Aerospace Corporation plans to continue updating its entry forecast. As of Thursday morning, it predicted a reentry of 7:17 pm ET Friday (23:17 UTC), plus or minus 10 hours.
A Long March 5B rocket launched the 23-ton Mengtian module to the Chinese Tiangong space station on Monday. This modified version of China's most powerful rocket uses the massive core stage to push space station modules all the way to low-Earth orbit. Because this core stage lacks the capability to relight its engines for a controlled reentry into a desolate part of the world's oceans, the rocket could ultimately come back anywhere in the tropics and most of the mid-latitudes of the planet.
