Windows 7: Two Strikes and You're Out
Unlike in baseball, when it comes to operating systems, it's two strikes and you're out. Given that Microsoft missed with Vista, if Windows 7 isn't a big hit, Microsoft is in for serious trouble.
Vista was as close as a disaster as it gets for Microsoft. It wasn't just the bad publicity that was the problem --- people stayed away in droves. And that had a big impact on the bottom line. In April, Microsoft reported its first quarterly loss ever, and although the general economy was the cause, problems with Vista didn't help. The biggest losses were from the division in charge of operating systems. If Vista had been a success, it's not clear whether the losses would have been as big.
The last time Microsoft had an operating system that bombed was back in 2000, with the dismal Windows Me, which was the buggiest, most ill-conceived operating system the company ever released. But it was only a year until the next version of Windows, XP, so the ill effects were short lived.